RESEARCH

THE SUBSEASONAL EXPERIMENT (SUBX)

 A research-to-operations project, providing a research database and real-time subseasonal forecasts

Project Website

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News Articles

• Accurate Weather Forecasts 28-days Out, Scientific American

• Bridging the Weather-Climate Prediction Skill Gap with a Multi-Model Experiment

• Experiment closes critical gap in weather forecasting

Journal Articles

• The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multimodel Subseasonal Prediction Experiment

• MJO Propagation Processes and Mean Biases in the SubX and S2S Reforecasts

ENSO DIVERSITY & PREDICTABILITY

Several mechanisms originating in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere extratropics have been identified as able to stochastically force ENSO events. Our research is investigating these mechanisms in observations and climate models using machine learning and information theory.

We study the tropical and extratropical mechanisms that impact the diversity and predictability of ENSO.  Several mechanisms originating in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere extratropics have been identified as able to stochastically force ENSO events. Our research is investigating these mechanisms in observations and climate models using machine learning and information theory.

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News Articles

Climate.gov ENSO Blog: A visit to the zoo: climate patterns that can precede ENSO

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Journal Articles

• Understanding the Impact of the Extratropics on ENSO Diversity and Predictability using an Interpretable Neural Network (in prep)

• The Impact of the Extratropics on ENSO Diversity and Predictability

• The seasonal footprinting mechanism in CFSv2: simulation and impact on ENSO prediction

• The South Pacific Meridional Mode as a Thermally Driven Source of ENSO Amplitude Modulation and Uncertainty

• Extratropical Precursors of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

• Monthly ENSO Forecast Skill and Lagged Ensemble Size

• Tracking seasonal prediction models

• Do asymmetries in ENSO predictability arise from different recharged states?

ENSEMBLE PREDICTION AND PREDICTABILITY OF EXTREME WEATHER VIA CIRCULATION REGIMES

The goal of this work is to advance the predictive capability of extreme weather (storminess and precipitation) on the subseasonal to seasonal time scales, over the Euro-Atlantic and Pacific-North American regions, using multi-model ensembles of reforecasts and forecasts from S2S, SubX, NMME.

DECADAL PREDICTION AND PREDICTABILITY OF EXTREMES IN OCEAN EDDY RESOLVING COUPLED MODELS

Our research is diagnosing the processes responsible for initiation and propagation of the MJO and its relationship with extreme precipitation in low and high resolution initialized forecasts from SubX, CESM, and E3SM.

APPLICATIONS OF SUBSEASONAL & SEASONAL PREDICTIONS TO COASTAL RESILIANCE & MARINE ECOSYSTEMS

I collaborate with other scientists to apply advances in subseasonal and seasonal predictions to improve local forecasts of storm surge and sea surface temperatures in marine ecosystems, coastal regions,  and estuaries.

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Journal Articles

• Estuarine forecasts at weather to subseasonal timescales, (submitted to JGR-Oceans)

• Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

• Potential applications of subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) predictions

• Seasonal sea surface temperature anomaly prediction for coastal ecosystems

• Improved management of small pelagic fisheries through seasonal climate prediction.

• More reliable coastal SST forecasts from the North American multimodel ensemble